In a significant political moment for Moldova, pro-western President Maia Sandu condemned what she described as an "unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy" by foreign influences during a pivotal referendum on European Union (EU) membership held on Sunday. As the results came in, the voting remained too close to call, intensifying concerns about the future of the nation.
On the day of the election, Moldovans participated in both a presidential election and the EU referendum, which represented a critical juncture in the ongoing struggle between pro-European and pro-Russian forces in the small, landlocked country of approximately 2.5 million residents.
As of 3 a.m. GMT on Monday, with 97.66% of the votes counted, about 50% of voters supported EU membership, according to the country’s electoral commission. However, the final outcome could shift, particularly as many votes from the diaspora—who are typically more favorable to EU accession—were still being tallied.
In the presidential election, Sandu, who was first elected in November 2020, led the initial round with around 38% of the vote. She will now face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor aligned with the pro-Russian Socialists, in a second round of voting.
The dual elections are viewed as a crucial test for Sandu's pro-European agenda. She has consistently advocated for EU accession as a vital constitutional goal for Moldova. However, the narrow referendum results are likely to disappoint her supporters and allies in Brussels, especially given pre-election polls that indicated a more substantial backing for EU membership, with estimates around 60%.
Since her election, Sandu has been seen as an anti-corruption reformer focused on strengthening Moldova's ties with Europe, particularly in light of Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Moldova has historically fluctuated between pro-western and pro-Russian orientations, but under Sandu's leadership, the nation has sought to distance itself from Moscow's influence.
As the elections unfolded, Moldovan authorities alleged that Russia and its allies had orchestrated a hybrid warfare campaign aimed at destabilizing the country and undermining its EU ambitions. During a speech to supporters in Chișinău, Sandu highlighted these challenges, claiming that "criminal groups" were attempting to sabotage the democratic process.
The allegations against Russia include accusations of funding pro-Kremlin opposition factions, spreading misinformation, and supporting extensive vote-buying schemes. Officials specifically targeted Ilan Shor, a fugitive businessman opposed to EU membership, accusing him of orchestrating destabilization efforts from abroad.
Earlier in October, Moldova’s national police chief alleged that Shor and Moscow were involved in a "mafia-style" scheme to bribe voters—reportedly attempting to influence nearly 130,000 Moldovans, which constitutes about 10% of typical voter turnout. Authorities also uncovered a plan to send individuals to Russia for training in staging riots and civil unrest.
Moldova, which applied for EU membership following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, officially began accession negotiations in June. However, skepticism about the country's ability to implement necessary reforms remains high.
As the political landscape shifts, Sandu faces a challenging runoff against a united pro-Moscow opposition led by Stoianoglo, who has criticized the referendum as a cynical strategy to enhance Sandu's popularity. Although Stoianoglo has denied any allegiance to Russia, he has refrained from condemning the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine and called for improved relations with Moscow.
As Moldova navigates these complex political waters, the outcome of the referendum and the presidential election will have lasting implications for its path toward European integration and its geopolitical alignment.
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