The U.S. presidential race is heating up as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris prepare to hold competing campaign events this weekend in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Former President Trump is scheduled for a rally on Saturday in Wilkes-Barre, located in the northeastern part of the state. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris will embark on a bus tour through western Pennsylvania, starting in Pittsburgh on Sunday. This tour precedes the Democratic National Convention set to begin Monday in Chicago.
In addition to these events, Democratic vice-presidential candidate and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will hold a rally in La Vista, Nebraska, on Saturday.
A recent NYT/Siena College poll shows Harris leading Trump among likely voters in Arizona (50% to 45%) and North Carolina (49% to 47%). However, Trump maintains a narrow lead in Nevada and Georgia.
The campaigns are intensely focused on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, states that have historically been bellwethers in national elections. Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral college votes, is particularly crucial for both candidates. Election analyst Nate Silver has identified Pennsylvania as the most likely "tipping point" state in the race to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Both campaigns are vying for the support of white, non-college-educated voters. The Harris-Walz ticket aims to solidify backing among suburban voters and increase turnout in urban areas with significant Black populations. Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, are also targeting these demographics.
Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 by around 44,000 votes, while Biden won by just over 80,000 votes in 2020. Currently, Harris leads Trump by more than 2% in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight. Recent polls by Quinnipiac and the New York Times/Siena College place Harris ahead by three to four percentage points.
Pennsylvania is receiving substantial campaign spending. The Wall Street Journal reports that of the more than $110 million spent in seven swing states since July 22, when Joe Biden withdrew from the re-election race, $42 million has been allocated to Pennsylvania. Additionally, political groups have reserved $114 million in ad time in the state from late August to November.
The campaign push in Pennsylvania will continue to intensify. Harris, Walz, and their spouses will visit Allegheny and Beaver counties on Sunday. Trump will respond to Harris's recent economic policy proposals at an event in York, Pennsylvania, on Monday, and Vance will be in Philadelphia.
The state will also be in the spotlight on September 10 when ABC hosts the first Harris-Trump debate in Philadelphia.
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