Israeli forces have killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a surprise shootout in Rafah, raising hopes among some Western commentators that this development could signal a potential end to the ongoing war in Gaza, or even to the larger Israel-Palestine conflict. However, analysts warn that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to seek new justifications to continue the conflict, driven by personal ambitions and a desire to further Israeli territorial expansion at the expense of the Palestinians.
Netanyahu's political future hangs in the balance, as he faces the prospect of prison time due to ongoing corruption charges. Accused of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust, he risks up to ten years behind bars if convicted. The charges stem from allegations that he offered favors to media moguls in exchange for favorable coverage. Despite these legal troubles, Netanyahu was re-elected for a fifth term, supported by a far-right coalition that has since aimed to undermine judicial independence in Israel.
As international scrutiny intensifies, the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, has requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for their roles in the violence against Gaza. Analysts suggest that Netanyahu may leverage the ongoing conflict to rally public support and divert attention from his legal issues. “He wants to make Israelis believe that they are under siege or at war… That’s his way of maintaining control and staying in power,” said Diana Buttu, an expert on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
The Ongoing War and Its Context
Since the onset of the war on Gaza in October 2023, over 42,000 people have been killed, and nearly the entire population of 2.3 million has been displaced. The assassination of Sinwar, often viewed as Israel's most significant adversary, is not expected to change Netanyahu's strategy. Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, expressed skepticism about the impact of Sinwar’s death, stating that it will not alter Israel’s military objectives in Gaza.
The conflict was initiated following a Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in 1,139 Israeli casualties and approximately 250 people being taken hostage. Gaza has endured a long-standing blockade since 2007, leading many to describe it as “the world’s largest open-air prison.” While Israel officially withdrew from Gaza in 2005, it maintained significant control over the region's borders and resources, making any genuine concessions to Palestinian sovereignty unlikely.
Historically, Israel has resisted political solutions aimed at achieving a fully sovereign Palestinian state. Analysts argue that successive Israeli governments have preferred military responses over negotiations, resulting in a cycle of violence and a lack of durable solutions.
Future Prospects
In light of Sinwar's assassination, Netanyahu has reiterated his commitment to continue the war in Gaza to rescue Israeli captives and dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon, suggesting a potential escalation of the conflict. Despite calls for ceasefires from the United States and other nations, Netanyahu has resisted pausing military operations, insisting on total victory.
Political commentator Oren Ziv suggests that the far-right in Israel will be emboldened by Sinwar’s death, which is unlikely to satisfy their demand for further military action. “The death of Sinwar is merely a temporary fix; they are looking for more violence and conflict,” he stated.
The cycle of violence is exacerbated by a failure to address the underlying grievances of the Palestinian people. Analysts like Buttu and Rahman note that while Hamas may be weakened structurally, the broader resistance against Israeli policies will persist as long as Palestinian suffering continues. "The total destruction of Gaza will only deepen the resolve of the Palestinian resistance," Rahman concluded, emphasizing the complex and entrenched nature of the conflict.
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