Israel Prepares for Potential Iranian Retaliation Amid Heightened Tensions

Israel is on high alert for a possible Iranian attack following a surge of hostile rhetoric from Iranian leaders, who have vowed to respond to Israeli missile strikes on military facilities last month. The escalating tension stems from a series of events, including an Iranian ballistic missile strike on Israel earlier in October and subsequent Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets.

Initially, Iran downplayed the impact of the Israeli strikes that occurred on October 26, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggesting that their significance should neither be exaggerated nor dismissed. However, in a more recent address, Khamenei issued a stark warning, stating, “The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response.” This sentiment was echoed by Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, Khamenei’s chief of staff, who asserted that Iran's retaliation would be "fierce and tooth-breaking." Maj Gen Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, further warned that Iran’s response would “surpass all expectations.”

According to reports from Iranian and Arab officials, Iran's planned retaliation is anticipated to be more sophisticated than previous attacks, potentially involving greater numbers of weapons and more powerful warheads. These strikes are expected to occur between the U.S. elections on Tuesday and the inauguration of the next president in January. Israeli intelligence suggests that the next attack could originate from Iraq, where Iranian-aligned Shia militias are armed with ballistic and cruise missiles, allowing for a faster strike than those launched from Iran itself.

The recent escalation in hostilities follows an Israeli airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, which prompted the Iranian missile attack on October 1. In response to the imminent threat, Israeli military commanders have indicated that any Iranian strikes would provoke a swift counterattack, noting that many of Iran's air defense systems were compromised in the October 26 strikes.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed these developments during a graduation ceremony for military officers, stating, “We struck [Iran's] soft underbelly... In Iran today, Israel has greater freedom of action than ever before.”

On the operational front, the Israeli air force conducted strikes against Hezbollah intelligence assets near Damascus, although Syrian officials claimed these attacks targeted civilian locations. In addition, the U.S. has pledged to support Israel amid rising tensions with Iran. The Pentagon recently deployed anti-ballistic missile systems and additional military aircraft to the region, emphasizing its commitment to Israel's defense and regional stability.

Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, highlighted the precarious position of Iranian leaders, who are now faced with the dilemma of needing to retaliate without appearing weak, while also considering the potential for further escalation. He warned that any Iranian retaliation could prompt Israel to intensify its attacks, potentially targeting not just military sites but also symbols of the Iranian regime, including oil installations and nuclear facilities.

In his remarks, Netanyahu reiterated the central goal of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, stating, “We have not taken – and we will not take – our eyes off this objective.” The situation remains fluid as both nations navigate the complex landscape of military and political strategies in the Middle East.