Early 2028 Poll Stuns Democrats — A Surprise Frontrunner Emerges in New Hampshire

California Governor Gavin Newsom may be one of the leading figures expected to carry the Democratic banner in 2028, but new polling suggests he has work to do if he hopes to win the all-important New Hampshire primary.

According to a University of New Hampshire survey released Monday, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic field with 19 percent support. Newsom trails in second at 15 percent, while New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows closely at 14 percent. Though the Granite State primary awards few delegates, it carries major symbolic weight and can make or break campaigns in their early stages.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance dominates with 51 percent support, well ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who polled at just 9 percent.

Newsom confirmed Sunday that he is seriously considering a 2028 presidential run but emphasized that his current priority is helping Democrats regain control of Congress in the 2026 midterms. His growing national profile, fueled by high-profile clashes with Donald Trump and conservative governors, has made him a central figure in Democratic politics.

The poll also showed that Newsom maintains relatively strong favorability, with 72 percent of respondents viewing him positively. Buttigieg remains even more popular, with 81 percent favorable and only 6 percent unfavorable opinions. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris — currently fourth with 11 percent — faces a higher negative perception at 17 percent, despite confirming last week that she is also weighing a 2028 run.

While it is still early, the New Hampshire snapshot signals a competitive race among Democrats and suggests that the path to the 2028 nomination may not be as straightforward for Newsom as many once assumed.