Over 61.5 million Iranians aged 18 and above have the opportunity to vote for a new president, potentially sending a message to the regime regarding the state of the economy. However, millions are expected to boycott the election on Friday, believing the outcome will be manipulated to ensure a loyalist victory.
Iran's leaders aim to restore their legitimacy after a significant decline in voter turnout, which reached a crisis point last year with less than 41% voting in parliamentary elections and under 10% in Tehran.
The vote follows the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May.
The two leading conservative candidates, Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator with minimal administrative experience, and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the parliament speaker, failed to reach a pre-election agreement for one to withdraw. This failure opens the possibility that the sole reformist candidate, 69-year-old heart surgeon Massoud Pezeshkian, might advance to a two-person runoff if no candidate secures 50% in the first round.
Jalili, an opponent of the 2015 nuclear deal, believes Iran can withstand Western sanctions by building economic ties with the East. He advocates using state power to enforce the hijab on Iranian women and has the support of the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability, a group at odds with Qalibaf. Qalibaf, willing to negotiate on reviving the nuclear deal, sees stronger economic management as the key to growth.
As the election neared, Jalili continued to press Qalibaf to stand down, suggesting that Qalibaf's withdrawal might be the only way to prevent a victory for Pezeshkian, which would effectively be a third term for centrist Hassan Rouhani, whose presidency ended in failure in 2021 due to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. The poll is a significant test of the reformists' relevance in Iranian politics.
The regime has tried to undermine Pezeshkian's campaign, including banning one of his final rallies. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned “certain Iranian politicians” for believing “all paths to progress pass through the United States,” clearly targeting Pezeshkian’s call to end Iran’s economic isolation from the West.
At the last moment, two of the five conservative candidates permitted to run by the Guardian Council—Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, a Raisi supporter, and Alireza Zakani, Tehran's mayor—stood aside, validating reformist accusations that they were front candidates for Jalili.
Many Iranians, disillusioned by successive crackdowns, question the value of the democratic process and plan to stay away rather than lend legitimacy to the election. A member of Generation Z told the Guardian: “With its killings, the regime has made the issue of not voting one of personal dignity.”
Both Pezeshkian and the supreme leader desire a high turnout—around 60%—but for different reasons. Pezeshkian needs to mobilize a depoliticized society to overcome the regime's 15 million supporters. The supreme leader has argued: “High turnout brings honour to the Islamic Republic. Every election with low participation gives our enemies reason to criticize us. We must not give them that satisfaction.”
It is also uncertain whether the supreme leader's allies, given his views on America and cultural values, would tolerate a Pezeshkian presidency. Pezeshkian has emphasized his acceptance of Khamenei’s authority, asserting that obedience will not hinder his efforts to change Iran.
A new paper by United Against a Nuclear Iran, a US pressure group, argues that the regime's electoral manipulation extends beyond doctoring the list of eligible candidates. The report highlights the role of the Baqiatallah Cultural and Social Headquarters in creating an apparatus and strategy to engineer political and cultural outcomes in Iran.
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