Donald Trump is determined to avoid jail, but if he does receive a prison sentence following his conviction on 34 felony counts in New York, those close to him believe he will blame the judge, sources familiar with the matter said.
While it’s unclear exactly how Trump might target Judge Juan Merchan, sources indicate that he has avoided addressing this issue directly. After the verdict, Trump met with his top advisers at Trump Tower, but the matter was not resolved.
Trump is expected to intensify his criticism of Merchan, urging his supporters at rallies and on Truth Social to voice their grievances against the judge, one source noted.
Judge Merchan has already faced significant criticism from Trump, who has accused him of being biased and part of a conspiracy with the Biden administration to prevent him from campaigning. Despite these accusations, there have been no concrete consequences so far.
However, Trump's supporters have previously threatened judges he has criticized, including death threats against Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing his federal 2020 election interference case, and threats to the chambers of the New York judge in his civil fraud trial.
Trump understands that Merchan has broad discretion in sentencing, from fines or probation to a prison term, regardless of prosecutors' recommendations. This gives Trump grounds to blame Merchan for any adverse outcome, especially if a jail sentence is handed down near the Republican national convention, even though such a sentence would likely be stayed pending appeal.
Throughout the trial, Trump has repeatedly attacked Merchan, accusing him of being unfair and biased, and falsely claiming he was trying to hinder his campaign efforts. A day after the trial, Trump escalated his attacks, describing Merchan as looking like an "angel" but really being the "devil" during a press conference at Trump Tower.
If a prison sentence is issued, sources expect Trump to respond with anger. However, he has avoided making explicit threats against Merchan, likely to prevent additional legal complications. On Fox News, Trump suggested the public would not tolerate him being sent to prison, though his campaign later clarified he was referring to the election.
Trump's conviction for using an unlawful hush-money scheme to influence the 2016 election places Merchan in a challenging position. A sentence less than jail could spark backlash for not reflecting the seriousness of Trump's actions, while a prison sentence would likely lead Trump to blame Merchan for any resulting unrest among his supporters, who have a history of political violence.
At sentencing, Merchan will also consider Trump's lack of remorse and violations of the gag order, which will be included in Trump’s pre-sentencing report. This report, compiled after a probation officer's investigation, is a key factor in determining the sentence and usually provides defendants an opportunity to express contrition, something Trump has not shown.
After the conviction, Trump continued to attack the verdict, indicating no sign of contrition, which will likely impact his pre-sentencing report and Merchan’s final decision.
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