In the wake of President Joe Biden's abrupt exit from the 2024 presidential race last Sunday, recent opinion polls indicate that Kamala Harris, now the presumptive Democratic nominee, is narrowing the gap with former President Donald Trump. While still trailing in several key surveys, Harris’s ascent has reinvigorated the Democratic campaign and suggests a reset in the presidential race, according to pollsters.
Current polling data from battleground states shows a tight contest. Trump maintains a slight lead within the margin of error in critical swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. Notably, a survey reveals a tie in Wisconsin, with both candidates at 47%.
National polls reflect similar close margins. In a New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday, Trump leads Harris by just one point, 48% to 47%. This marks a significant shift from the six-point advantage Trump had over Biden in early July. Other polls show Trump ahead by two points in a Quinnipiac University survey, one point in a Marist College poll, and three points in a CNN/SSRS survey. Conversely, an Ipsos/Reuters poll gives Harris a two-point lead, and a YouGov/Yahoo survey shows the race deadlocked at 46% each.
Harris’s campaign has gained considerable momentum following endorsements from major Democratic figures, including Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi. Speculation also suggests that Barack Obama may soon endorse Harris, further bolstering her campaign.
Aggregated polling data, as compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, indicates Trump with 47.8% and Harris with 45.7%—a gap that remains within the margin of error, effectively showing a near tie. This narrow difference contrasts with the 3.3-point gap favoring Trump over Biden using the same aggregation methods.
Patrick Murray, director of the polling institute at Monmouth University, notes that while the movement in Harris’s direction is modest, it signifies a significant recalibration of the race. “The fact that the numbers have shifted a few points suggests that the election has been reset, though we need more data to understand the full trajectory,” he said.
The improved polling for Harris follows increasing pressure on Biden to withdraw after a lackluster debate performance led to declining confidence in his candidacy and a downward trend in his poll numbers.
“There’s no question that in the last month, the trajectory of a Biden-Trump race was leaning towards Trump,” Murray added. “Whether Democrats made the right choice will become clearer in November, but it was certainly the right decision at the time given Biden’s inability to turn things around.”
One of the most notable shifts is in support from younger voters. An Axios/Generation Lab poll shows Harris leading Trump by 20 points, 60% to 40%, among voters aged 18-34—a significant increase from Biden’s previous six-point lead in this demographic. This uptick is attributed to Harris’s focus on women’s rights and personal freedoms.
Among swing states, Trump’s largest lead is in Arizona, where he holds a five-point advantage over Harris. Polling in Arizona, a state pivotal due to immigration issues, suggests potential vice-presidential candidates could include Mark Kelly, the state’s popular Democratic senator.
Trump leads Harris by narrow margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia—states Biden won in 2020. This raises the stakes for Harris’s choice of a running mate, with figures like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer being considered.
Murray advises that Harris’s vice-presidential pick should avoid causing harm and ideally strengthen the ticket’s appeal in key swing states. In contrast, Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his running mate could face scrutiny due to Vance’s controversial positions and past statements.
As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Harris’s campaign strategy and running mate selection will be crucial in determining her ability to close the gap with Trump and secure victory in November.
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