Rwandans Head to the Polls with Kagame Poised to Extend Rule

 On Monday, Rwandans will vote in an election where President Paul Kagame is widely expected to secure another term, continuing his leadership of the central African nation.

This marks the fourth presidential election since the 1994 genocide, where over 800,000 people, predominantly Tutsis, were killed. Kagame, who led the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) to defeat the Hutu extremists and halt the genocide, was appointed president by parliament in 2000 following the resignation of Pasteur Bizimungu.

Kagame has consistently won more than 90% of the vote in the previous elections of 2003, 2010, and 2017. Running on the RPF ticket, he is now seeking a fourth seven-year term after a 2015 constitutional amendment extended presidential term limits.

Kagame is credited with transforming Rwanda from ethnic conflict to a unified nation and a regional business hub. However, critics accuse his government of suppressing free speech and human rights in the country of 13 million, with over 9 million eligible to vote in this election.

Kagame's opponents include Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana, both of whom he faced in 2017. The national electoral commission disqualified six other candidates, including prominent Kagame critics Victoire Ingabire, Diane Rwigara, and Bernard Ntaganda, for various reasons.

Kagame's campaign has emphasized security, stability, unity, and economic development. At a rally in the northern Gakenke district, he stated, "We chose to rebuild ourselves and our country, which was destroyed by bad politics and irresponsible leaders. You have rebuilt yourselves, developed your skills, and have competent leaders. Therefore, you must ensure Rwanda continues its path towards sustainable progress."

Habineza, a former RPF member, advocates for reforms in tax and land policies and agricultural modernization. Mpayimana, a senior expert in the ministry of national unity and civic engagement and a former journalist, aims to downsize parliament, boost agricultural productivity, and improve education and student welfare.

In the previous election, Habineza and Mpayimana each received less than 1% of the vote. Analysts suggest they still lack the name recognition, financial resources, and organizational capacity to pose a significant challenge to Kagame.

The RPF has been the ruling party since 1994, holding 75% of parliamentary seats. David Kiwuwa, an associate professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham, commented, "Rwanda is a dominant party system, with the RPF occupying a supersized political space, facing no foreseeable challenger."

Rachel Nicholson, a researcher at Amnesty International, noted that the election could be an opportunity for Rwanda's political leadership to recommit to human rights, investigate enforced disappearances, killings, and other human rights violations, and ensure justice for victims. "Regardless of whether leadership changes or not, it's a moment of change," she said. "Leaders can choose if they want to."

Rwandans will also vote for members of the lower house of parliament on Monday, with election results expected later in the week.