Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has seen a significant surge in popularity since replacing Joe Biden as the party's nominee, according to a new analysis of recent voter surveys. This rise has unveiled a surprising second path to victory for Harris in the upcoming November election.
The Washington Post's aggregation of polls shows that Harris has become newly competitive in four southern Sun Belt states—Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina—that previously leaned heavily towards Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump. If this trend holds, Harris could potentially secure an electoral college victory by winning these states or by capturing three key swing states in the Midwestern Rust Belt: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In contrast, Trump would need to win both the Sun Belt and Rust Belt states to secure the 270 electoral college votes necessary for victory, according to the model. This potential new front in Harris's campaign strategy is seen as a significant advantage following her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket, a position Biden held until late July.
Since Harris replaced Biden on July 21, after his poor debate performance, she has gained an average of two percentage points nationally and 2.1% in seven battleground states. This improvement has reset the election race and may even position Harris as a slight favorite. Her campaign, bolstered by her choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, has gained renewed momentum in key swing states.
The U.S. presidential election outcome is determined by the electoral college system, where the candidate must win a majority of 538 electoral votes allotted state by state. Currently, polls suggest Harris leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and has narrowed the gap in Michigan to within one point of Trump. Biden won all three states by narrow margins in 2020.
Moreover, Harris has improved Biden's standing in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, as well as North Carolina, where she is now within the margin of error against Trump. Biden narrowly won the first three states in 2020 but lost North Carolina by less than two percentage points. Democratic strategists are now optimistic about carrying North Carolina, which the party has only won once in presidential elections since 1980.
Despite this progress, Harris still trails Trump in the final tally if the election were held today. However, a Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows that Harris's choice of Walz as running mate is more favorable with voters than Trump's selection of JD Vance. Vance's hardline anti-abortion views and misogynistic comments have negatively impacted his standing with female voters.
Reflecting the campaign's confidence, Harris is scheduled to deliver a keynote economic speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, where she will address policies on price gouging, rising food prices, and high housing costs. Meanwhile, Vance, an Ohio senator, will speak in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, following recent appearances in Pennsylvania and Michigan, indicating the Trump campaign's focus on winning these critical states.
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