Ukraine's Strategic Struggle: Balancing Advances in Kursk and Defending Donetsk

 

Nearly two weeks after its unexpected incursion into Russia, Ukraine is facing the challenge of balancing territorial gains in the Kursk region with losses in central Donetsk.

On Friday, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported daily advances of up to two miles inside Russia. However, Russian forces have made gains of approximately three miles this month as the Kremlin focuses on capturing the strategic hub of Pokrovsk.

Many Ukrainians believe these struggles are interconnected, with the outcome still uncertain. Russia was expected to divert significant forces from the east to defend Kursk. Hanna Shelest, a senior fellow with the Centre for European Policy Analysis, noted that while the Ukrainian attack had "exceeded expectations," Russia had not shifted as many forces from the eastern front as anticipated.

On Thursday, the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, suggested that only "select elements of Russian irregular units" were redeployed to Kursk. The Kremlin is likely reluctant to pull military units from key combat areas like Pokrovsk.

Russia's foreign ministry accused Ukraine on Friday of using US-made Himars rockets to destroy a strategic bridge north of Glushkovo in Kursk, seven miles from the international border. This move could isolate a segment of Russian territory along the frontline.

In Pokrovsk, civilian evacuations have intensified. Serhiy Dobryak, head of the city military administration, warned that Russian forces had "nearly reached" the city, heightening concerns about its future.

Pokrovsk, previously considered safe enough for journalists and aid workers, serves as a regional base with crucial road and rail connections. Capturing it would effectively split the part of Donetsk oblast still under Ukrainian control.

On Friday evening, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy connected the battles in Kursk and Pokrovsk. He explained that the incursion into Kursk aimed to "disrupt Russian army logistics and deplete their reserves." Syrskyi briefed him on both defensive efforts in Donbas, including Pokrovsk, and advances in Kursk.

Despite early successes in Kursk, some Ukrainian soldiers are skeptical of the broader strategy. Oleksii, an infantry member, expressed concern that attacking Kursk diverts valuable soldiers from defending Pokrovsk. He emphasized the importance of defending existing territory.

Rumors persist that Colonel Emil Ishkulov, commander of Ukraine's 80th brigade, was removed in July for opposing the incursion into Russia, doubting his unit's strength for the task. Soldiers unsuccessfully appealed for his reinstatement.

Estonian intelligence officials, known for their analysis of Russian intentions, stated on Friday that Moscow had not yet amassed enough forces for a full counterattack in Kursk. Lt Col Mattias Puusepp, deputy chief of staff of the Estonian defense forces, noted that Russian actions remain defensive.

On Saturday, a Russian ballistic missile hit central Sumy, the Ukrainian city closest to the cross-border incursion. This marked the first attack on the city in nearly a week, injuring two civilians and causing significant damage.

Sumy, with a population of about 250,000, has remained active despite the ongoing conflict. Hospitals are filling with frontline casualties, prompting an urgent call for blood donations. The city has also received around 4,000 people fleeing nearby agricultural villages.

In the border zone, only a few civilians and minimal infrastructure remain. An aid agency, Global Empowerment Mission, provides nearly 26,000 food rations monthly to the remaining population.

Some Ukrainians, like Valentyna Mykolaiivna from Yunakivka, refuse to leave their homes. Valentyna, a 62-year-old pensioner, insists that Ukraine's military strategy is justified. "They pushed them back. Let them stay where they are. Why do they want to come here?" she asked.

Despite the risks, Valentyna remains steadfast. Her substantial brick house, surrounded by a yard with livestock and a garden, represents a life she is unwilling to abandon. As a gesture of gratitude, she gifted a large watermelon from her garden.