As the US presidential election campaign approaches its final weekend, polls indicate that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain in a deadlock, leaving voters uncertain about who will emerge victorious on Tuesday. Despite an eventful week marked by Trump’s racially charged rally at Madison Square Garden and a flurry of celebrity endorsements and controversial remarks, the polling data shows little fluctuation in voter loyalty.
Currently, Harris holds a narrow one-point lead over Trump, with 48% to 47% in national polling, a figure that mirrors the results from the previous week and falls well within the margin of error for most surveys. In key battleground states, the competition is equally tight. In Pennsylvania, often viewed as the most crucial swing state due to its 19 electoral votes, both candidates are tied at 48%. Harris holds slight advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump leads by small margins in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, with his polling average in Nevada hovering below a percentage point.
The latest polling comes amid unprecedented levels of early voting, with approximately 65 million Americans having cast their ballots by Friday. While predicting outcomes based on early voting patterns is challenging, Politico reports that a significant majority of early voters aged 65 and older in Pennsylvania are registered Democrats, potentially boding well for Harris. This demographic previously favored Trump in 2020, but current turnout trends suggest that Democrats may have an advantage.
In contrast to his 2020 campaign, Trump has encouraged his supporters to participate in early voting this year, and Democratic strategists claim to have a 10%-20% lead in senior voter turnout across the three blue-wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This turnout will be critical in determining the election's outcome.
Despite the tight polling, the political landscape remains highly fragmented, with threats of retribution from Trump and accusations of fascism from Harris, prompting concerns that democracy itself hangs in the balance. Polling-analysis site FiveThirtyEight’s simulator predicts Trump would win 53 out of 100 simulations, compared to 47 for Harris, reflecting a similar pattern from the previous week.
A recent Marist poll offers a glimmer of hope for Harris, suggesting she may gain momentum with leads of 3% in Michigan and Wisconsin and 2% in Pennsylvania. Winning these states is crucial for her path to the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency, but these results also fall within the margins of error.
This consistent polling landscape has led some analysts to speculate about "herding" effects among pollsters, who may be cautious in presenting results that show significant leads for either candidate, especially given their previous miscalculations in 2016 and 2020. Political experts have noted that a substantial number of recent polls in battleground states—nearly 40% of 321—showed margins of a single point or less, with Pennsylvania standing out as particularly contentious, as many polls report ties or extremely narrow margins.
As the final weekend of campaigning unfolds, both candidates are aware that the outcome hinges on mobilizing their bases and swaying undecided voters in a climate of heightened political tension.
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