After the latest round of talks concluded, prospects for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza seem bleak this weekend. Further discussions are scheduled for the upcoming week, but they appear to be more of a last-ditch effort to keep the peace process alive rather than a genuine chance at ending the conflict.
This pattern of disappointment is not new. Over a dozen rounds of mediated negotiations, a UN resolution, pressure from Washington and other powers, and numerous other efforts have failed to compel Israeli and Hamas leaders to make the necessary concessions to end the 10-month-old war.
The core issue is clear: despite detailed arguments over the specifics of any agreement, a deal can only be achieved when the most influential decision-makers on each side believe the time is right to end the fighting. Currently, this does not seem to be the case.
Despite significant damage to Israel's international reputation, strained relations with Washington, economic costs, over 300 military fatalities, and growing anger in the occupied West Bank, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears convinced that continuing the offensive launched into Gaza last October is more beneficial than halting it.
After a slow start, Israel has managed to eliminate several senior Hamas military leaders in Gaza, including military chief Mohammed Deif and his deputy Marwan Issa. Numerous lower-level commanders have also been killed in Israeli strikes.
This has significantly weakened Hamas and somewhat alleviated the fear and trauma in Israel following Hamas’s surprise attacks on October 7 last year, which killed nearly 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and resulted in about 250 hostages being taken.
Israeli security officials believe the country has restored the deterrence central to its strategic defense for decades.
Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza and a prime target of the Israeli military, is believed to be hiding in tunnels in the territory. However, claims that 14,000 Hamas combatants are among the over 40,000 people Palestinian health officials say have been killed so far in Gaza seem exaggerated, with credible evidence indicating that two-thirds of the casualties are women and children.
Early in the conflict, senior Israeli officers stated their strategy was not to kill "every single Hamas militant one by one." However, when an army begins measuring success by body counts, victory is often distant.
Military experts, including some in Israel and many in the US and elsewhere, advise ending the operation and bringing back the 100 or so hostages still held in Gaza as soon as possible. This would achieve at least one of Israel’s war aims and allow its armed forces to address other looming threats, notably from Iran, which blames Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 and is likely to retaliate.
Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, poses another significant threat, especially following the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, hours before the strike on Haniyeh.
Netanyahu is not in a hurry to make a deal. One factor may be the potential collapse of his ruling coalition if right-wingers opposed to concessions withdraw their support, leaving him vulnerable to corruption trials. Additionally, Israeli public opinion is complex; while polls show Netanyahu remains unpopular and many Israelis favor a deal to bring back the hostages, the ratings of Netanyahu’s Likud party have improved recently. If Israel were to kill Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 attacks, Netanyahu’s political and legal prospects would brighten.
Sinwar also appears unwilling to negotiate. His 40-year career in Islamist militancy has been marked by relentless dedication to the destruction of Israel and brutal violence. Now hiding in a tunnel under Gaza, Sinwar, who spent 23 years in Israeli prisons before being released in a 2011 prisoner exchange, is described by an Israeli former interrogator as "1,000% committed and 1,000% violent – a very, very hard man."
This month, Sinwar was chosen to succeed Haniyeh, a relative pragmatist, as the head of Hamas, consolidating the authority of the organization’s most intransigent senior officials. Few observers believe this improves the chances of a ceasefire.
Sinwar now seems to believe Hamas holds a strong position in negotiations, with increasing civilian suffering in Gaza putting international pressure on Israel to make concessions.
On Friday, a White House statement signed by co-mediators Qatar and Egypt described a new proposal that "builds on areas of agreement over the past week and bridges remaining gaps in a manner that allows for swift implementation of the deal" as early as this week. This is optimistic, but under the circumstances, any sign of possible progress is welcome.
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