As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, analysts in China are working to interpret the implications of potential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on U.S.-China relations. Observers note that the political climate has led to what some are calling the "vibes election," characterized by the underlying similarities in the foreign policies of both candidates regarding China.
Chinese commentators express skepticism about significant changes in U.S. policy towards China, regardless of who wins. Wang Yiwei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University, believes that Harris would largely uphold the policies of President Biden, who he describes as a "Trumpist without the Trump." This perspective is reinforced by Harris's limited foreign policy record and her recent statements, which reflect a continuation of the tough stance on China established by the Biden administration.
During her keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in August, Harris made only a brief reference to China, emphasizing the need for America to prevail in the global competition of the 21st century. In another speech, she highlighted her commitment to strengthening the American middle class, aligning with Biden's approach that has involved imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods, thus perpetuating the trade tensions initiated during Trump's presidency.
The consensus among Chinese analysts is that a change in administration will not alter the fundamental dynamics of U.S.-China relations. A recent article in Foreign Affairs by prominent commentators asserted that Chinese strategists expect no significant shifts in U.S. policy over the next decade, regardless of the election outcome. They argue that both Harris and Trump would maintain a focus on strategic competition and containment regarding China, with Harris likely offering a more organized approach compared to Trump's unpredictability.
Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, also predicts that U.S.-China relations will remain strained under either candidate. He notes that a second Trump administration could lead to heightened economic friction and a potential revival of trade wars.
Moreover, areas where U.S.-China cooperation previously thrived, such as climate policy, are becoming increasingly precarious. Kate Logan, of the Asia Society Policy Institute, pointed out that China seems to be shifting towards subnational cooperation, focusing on state-level dialogues rather than national negotiations, in anticipation of a potentially hostile national-level climate diplomacy should Trump be re-elected.
Harris's running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, brings a unique background with substantial experience in China. His support for human rights in China has drawn attention, but it remains unclear how his insights would translate into an effective U.S. policy towards China if Harris were to take office.
The composition of Harris's national security team will also play a crucial role in shaping her administration's approach to China. Current national security adviser Philip Gordon may influence policy directions, though his previous remarks caution against labeling China as an outright enemy.
One critical issue on Beijing's agenda is Taiwan, particularly following the election of Lai Ching-te, a pro-sovereignty leader, which Beijing views as a direct challenge. Chinese officials maintain that adherence to the "one China" principle is essential to their diplomatic strategy, marking Taiwan as a sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations.
Some Chinese analysts even view a second Trump term favorably, as they perceive him as less likely to actively support Taiwan's sovereignty, which they believe could stabilize U.S.-China ties. However, concerns persist regarding Trump's unpredictable nature, as his administration would likely include advisers with hawkish views on China.
Amid this complex landscape, many in Taiwan feel the upcoming U.S. election could impact their future, despite having no say in the matter. Local sentiment reveals apprehension towards the potential for conflict, with citizens expressing doubt about the effectiveness of foreign interventions in the event of an escalation. As Taiwan continues to navigate its relationship with both the U.S. and China, the outcome of the U.S. election remains a focal point of concern and speculation.
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