A new report reveals that Azerbaijan, the host nation for the upcoming COP29 global climate summit, is set to significantly increase its fossil gas production in the next decade. The report criticizes the involvement of entities with vested interests in fossil fuels in the crucial climate negotiations.
According to the findings, Azerbaijan's state-owned oil and gas company, SOCAR, and its partners plan to boost the country's annual gas output from 37 billion cubic meters to 49 billion cubic meters by 2033. Additionally, SOCAR has recently committed to increasing gas exports to the European Union by 17% by 2026.
The COP29 summit, which kicks off on November 11, comes amid alarming reports from scientists warning that record levels of carbon dioxide emissions jeopardize the future of humanity. The International Energy Agency has stated that new fossil fuel exploitation must cease if the world aims for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Yet, SOCAR directed 97% of its capital expenditures toward oil and gas projects in 2023. Although the company recently announced a "green energy division" promising investments in renewable energy, the report highlights that its renewable initiatives remain minimal.
Azerbaijan’s climate action plan received a “critically insufficient” rating from Climate Action Tracker (CAT) in September. Analysts pointed out that Azerbaijan has weakened its climate targets while continuing to prioritize fossil fuel extraction. The report also emphasizes that for effective climate action, civil society must have the freedom to speak and protect human rights.
Regine Richter, a lead author of the report from the German NGO Urgewald, expressed concern about SOCAR’s significant influence on the climate negotiations, noting, “Did we put the fox in charge of the henhouse?” This sentiment is echoed by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who remarked at a climate conference that the country’s oil and gas resources are “a gift from God.” Aliyev, who has close ties to SOCAR, previously served as the company’s vice president before becoming president in 2003.
Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Mukhtar Babayev, who previously worked for SOCAR, will lead COP29, further intertwining the country's fossil fuel interests with the climate agenda. Rovshan Najaf, the president of SOCAR, is also part of the organizing committee for the summit.
In response to criticism regarding Azerbaijan's gas production and energy transition, a COP29 spokesperson stated that the country is increasing its gas capacity to meet European demands following disruptions in supply from Russia. The spokesperson added that Azerbaijan is also developing its solar and wind resources as part of its commitment to becoming a leader in green energy.
The report, compiled by Urgewald and CEE Bankwatch, predicts that Azerbaijan’s gas production will grow by one-third in the coming decade, with fossil fuel companies projected to invest $41.4 billion in the country’s gas fields. SOCAR alone has allocated nearly $300 million for oil and gas exploration from 2022 to 2024. The anticipated gas production could generate approximately 780 million tonnes of CO2, more than double the UK's annual emissions. Scientists have cautioned that most existing gas reserves need to remain untapped to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
SOCAR collaborates with major fossil fuel corporations, including BP, TotalEnergies, and Russia's Tatneft. The company has also received substantial financial support, amounting to $6.8 billion in loans and underwriting between 2021 and 2023, highlighting its crucial role in Azerbaijan's economy, which relies heavily on fossil fuel revenues.
The report underscores the necessity for climate leaders who genuinely prioritize climate action rather than those with financial interests in fossil fuels. It also raises serious concerns about Azerbaijan’s human rights record, noting that the European Court of Human Rights has found the country guilty of numerous violations, including torture and inhumane treatment.
Manana Kochladze of CEE Bankwatch stated, “While other governments collaborate with civil society to address the climate crisis, the Aliyev regime systematically threatens environmental and human rights defenders. This raises doubts about the upcoming negotiations in Baku.”
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