Japan heads to the polls Sunday in what could be the closest election the country has seen in years, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) facing a possible defeat not seen since 2009. Recent opinion polls indicate that the conservative LDP and its coalition partner Komeito may fall short of a majority, a result that could seriously weaken Ishiba’s leadership.
Prime Minister Ishiba, a former defense minister, assumed office last month after narrowly winning his party’s leadership and immediately called a snap election. His campaign pledges have centered on revitalizing rural areas and tackling Japan's declining population with policies that encourage family growth, like more flexible working hours. However, voter sentiment has been dampened by recent price hikes and a party funding scandal that previously undermined former premier Fumio Kishida.
Speaking at a Saturday rally, Ishiba acknowledged these challenges, telling supporters, "We aim to rebuild the LDP as a fair, just, and sincere party." However, critics argue that his stance on issues like separate surnames for married couples has become inconsistent, and his cabinet includes only two female ministers, reflecting a missed opportunity to appeal to broader voter demographics.
Polls show that the LDP and Komeito may struggle to secure the 233 seats needed for a majority in the lower house, with one survey from the Yomiuri Shimbun indicating a tough battle. Should the coalition fall short, Ishiba may be forced to seek new alliances or govern with a minority, potentially putting his role as prime minister at risk.
A poor result could mean Ishiba might step down, potentially setting a record for Japan’s shortest-serving postwar prime minister. In several districts, LDP candidates are running closely with members of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who has gained popularity for his criticisms of the LDP’s focus on wealthy backers.
“The LDP’s approach prioritizes policies that benefit their financial supporters,” Noda told his base on Saturday, underscoring what he describes as neglect for those in vulnerable situations, including survivors of central Japan's recent earthquake.
The recent funding scandal within the LDP has shaken public trust, and Ishiba pledged not to endorse LDP candidates implicated in the scandal, although they remain on the ballot. Reports that LDP offices have received millions in district funds have been dismissed by Ishiba as biased, insisting that implicated candidates will not use the funds.
For undecided voters, like Hitomi Hisano from Aichi, these issues weigh heavily. "The LDP has been in power for too long, and I see a sense of entitlement there," Hisano said. "But it’s hard to find a party I fully trust with my vote.”
As the election day approaches, the outcome could reshape Japan’s political landscape and determine the future direction of the ruling coalition.
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