Moldova's Cash Seizure Sparks Fears of Russian Interference in Elections

 

In a significant crackdown last spring, Moldovan customs officers intercepted over 100 passengers arriving from Russia via Armenia, each carrying nearly €10,000 in cash—just under the threshold for mandatory declaration. This operation resulted in the seizure of more than €900,000 at Chișinău airport, following a tip-off from national intelligence.

Authorities quickly linked the cash couriers to an alleged scheme orchestrated by a fugitive oligarch with ties to the Kremlin, aimed at financing protests and manipulating votes ahead of the upcoming presidential election and a critical EU referendum. The operation highlighted what both Moldovan and Western officials describe as an unprecedented Russian effort to undermine Moldova’s aspirations for EU membership and to destabilize the pro-Western government led by President Maia Sandu.

“Russia is pouring millions in dirty money to hijack our democratic processes,” stated Olga Roşca, a foreign policy adviser to President Sandu. “This isn’t just meddling—it’s full-blown interference aimed at destabilizing our future.” The presidential election is scheduled for October 20, coinciding with a referendum asking Moldovans whether they support constitutional changes that could pave the way for EU membership.

Roşca indicated that the Moldovan government estimates at least €100 million is being funneled from Russia to manipulate the electoral process and the referendum. This concern over Russian interference is not new; in June, the US, UK, and Canada issued warnings about Moscow's attempts to influence Moldovan politics and provoke mass protests if its efforts are unsuccessful.

Moldova has oscillated between pro-Western and pro-Russian orientations since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, with Moscow maintaining a significant influence, including the presence of 1,500 troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria, controlled by pro-Russian separatists.

President Sandu, who gained popularity as an anti-corruption reformer, resides in a modest two-bedroom apartment with her mother, highlighting her commitment to a humble lifestyle amid a political landscape dominated by wealthier, more flamboyant figures. Despite the challenges, Sandu’s party, the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), secured a parliamentary majority in 2021, granting her the opportunity to implement reforms aimed at steering the country toward Europe.

However, Moldova's situation remains precarious. The country faced an energy crisis after Kremlin-controlled Gazprom reduced gas supplies and increased rates, seen as political retribution against Sandu's pro-European stance. Additionally, the ongoing war in Ukraine has exacerbated Moldova's financial troubles, straining its healthcare system and public services due to an influx of Ukrainian refugees.

While President Sandu is favored to win the first round of voting against ten other candidates, she must prepare for a challenging second-round runoff. She is also leading the campaign for the EU referendum, with polls indicating that 55-65% of voters support joining the bloc. Nevertheless, skepticism persists regarding Moldova's ability to achieve the necessary democratic reforms.

Critics accuse Sandu of politicizing the referendum by scheduling it on the same day as the presidential election, suggesting it may benefit her chances of re-election. Proponents of the government argue that with Russia’s growing influence, the referendum is essential for the country’s future.

One of the key figures in this situation is Ilan Shor, a fugitive businessman who opposes EU membership and is accused of orchestrating a “mafia-style” scheme to bribe voters against the referendum. Shor has been sanctioned by Western nations and is currently living in exile in Moscow.

National police have accused Shor of funding a campaign to buy votes and incite unrest in Moldova, while he has reportedly offered financial incentives to voters who support his agenda. As tensions rise, Moldovan officials express concerns about potential foreign interference in the upcoming elections and referendum.

Moldova’s geopolitical landscape remains complicated, with the country’s leaders emphasizing the critical nature of the upcoming votes for the nation’s democratic integrity and European aspirations. As the situation unfolds, both domestic and foreign influences will play a crucial role in shaping Moldova's future.