With the November 5 presidential election only days away, more than 41 million Americans have already voted through early in-person and mail-in ballots. This high early voter turnout could be a deciding factor in the intense race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Traditionally, Democratic voters are more inclined to vote early or by mail, while Republicans often prefer casting their ballots in person on Election Day. This trend has led to the so-called “blue shift” or “red mirage” effect in swing states, where initial vote counts favor Republicans but may shift toward Democrats as mail-in ballots are processed. In the 2020 election, for example, early voting was pivotal in Georgia, where over 2.7 million early votes contributed to Joe Biden’s win over Trump.
This year, both parties have emphasized early voting, with Democrats urging supporters to take advantage of early ballots and Republicans—despite historical skepticism toward mail-in voting—encouraging early participation as well. University of Florida’s Election Lab data shows that Democrats currently represent 39.9% of early voters, while Republicans make up 36.3%. Both parties are closely monitoring these early numbers as Election Day approaches, especially in critical swing states that could determine the election’s outcome.

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