Ireland Sets General Election for 29 November as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil Seek Fourth Term

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris announced that Ireland will hold a general election on 29 November, with his center-right party, Fine Gael, and coalition partner Fianna Fáil positioned to secure a fourth term, according to recent polls. Harris's decision comes after a month of heightened election speculation, with the prime minister expressing his preference for a 2024 election.

Harris revealed his intentions on Irish broadcaster RTÉ, explaining, “I intend to request the dissolution of the Dáil [Irish parliament] on Friday, aiming for a 29 November polling date,” pending formal approval by the president.

The announcement precedes a European Union leaders' summit in Budapest, where discussions will include the implications of Donald Trump’s recent U.S. presidential win, particularly for Ireland, whose economy is heavily influenced by U.S. tech companies and corporate tax policies. Harris could have waited until the end of the government’s five-year term in March but, with Sinn Féin's support waning, opted to call the election in less than a month.

Ireland faces pressing issues like a severe housing shortage and high living costs due to economic strain from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, recent government moves, including tax cuts and spending boosts, have provided favorable ground for the ruling coalition. While Sinn Féin previously enjoyed strong public support, now polling has shown a stark decline in popularity, with the party dropping to 18.5%, far from the 37% it held two years ago. Issues like shifting stances on migration and controversies around child safeguarding have contributed to this decline.

Meanwhile, Harris has reinvigorated Fine Gael since assuming the role of taoiseach after Leo Varadkar’s departure in April. Known for his strong social media presence, Harris, sometimes called the "TikTok taoiseach," has driven a resurgence in Fine Gael’s polling numbers, currently at 24.5%, with Fianna Fáil following at 21.5%.

Despite a renewed energy in the ruling coalition, Harris faces significant challenges, including infrastructure limitations, an underfunded healthcare system, and public concern over rising migration. However, polling data suggests Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, along with the Green Party or another smaller center-left ally, could secure a majority, potentially allowing for continued stability in policies.