Concerns Grow as U.S. College Enrollment Declines Amid Affordability and Other Challenges

 

New data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reveals a troubling trend in college enrollment, with a 5% drop in the number of 18-year-old freshmen for the fall semester of 2024. This decline, which encompasses 1.4 million students, is most notable at public and private non-profit four-year colleges, which have seen enrollment drops exceeding 6%. The decline is even more pronounced in selective universities, where enrollment of freshmen of color, including Black students, has decreased by nearly 17%.

Experts point to multiple factors contributing to the downward trend, with the most significant being the rising cost of higher education. The changes to the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) last year, which were intended to simplify the application process, ended up causing delays and confusion, leaving many students uncertain about their financial aid packages. This uncertainty, coupled with a series of legal challenges to federal student loan forgiveness programs, has further complicated the college decision-making process for prospective students.

Julie J. Park, an education professor at the University of Maryland, highlighted the growing concerns over the so-called “enrollment cliff,” which has been linked to declining birth rates following the Great Recession. However, she also pointed out that competing financial pressures are influencing students' decisions, as more are opting to enter the workforce rather than pursue higher education. This shift is particularly pronounced in the current labor market, where job opportunities are becoming more attractive, and students feel the need to support their families.

Jenny Rickard, CEO of Common App, emphasized that while college enrollment is down, this does not reflect a decline in interest in higher education. Instead, she attributed the drop to external factors such as the FAFSA issues and rising tuition costs, which continue to be a barrier for many potential students. A report from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation in 2024 also found that cost and the need to work were the primary reasons keeping adults from pursuing further education, despite their recognition of the value of a college degree.

Despite these challenges, the number of applications for four-year colleges has continued to rise. The Common App reported a 7% increase in college applications, with a 12% rise in applicants from low- and middle-income backgrounds, underscoring that students still aspire to pursue higher education. However, affordability remains a critical hurdle that higher education institutions must address to ensure that students from all backgrounds can access the opportunities they seek.

As the cost of college continues to rise—especially with tuition fees increasing at both in-state and out-of-state public institutions—many experts urge the higher education community to prioritize supporting students, ensuring not only that campuses are welcoming but also that financial barriers to access are removed.