ACA Premiums Set to Skyrocket as Enhanced Subsidies Expire

Open enrollment for 2026 coverage under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is just around the corner, and Americans are bracing for a financial jolt. According to a new KFF analysis released Tuesday, premiums on healthcare.gov are expected to surge 26% on average next year—one of the largest jumps since Obamacare debuted over a decade ago.

The numbers get worse when factoring in the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies, which have kept coverage affordable for millions of Americans. Without this extra help, monthly payments for the benchmark plan could more than double for many enrollees, with some states projecting eye-popping increases.

• Federal exchange states: Benchmark plan premiums rising 30% on average.

• State-run exchanges: Benchmark premiums rising 17% on average.

Even so, most consumers in federal exchange states can still find plans at or below $50 per month with the original ACA subsidies, but the proportion of people able to do so drops sharply—from 83% in 2025 to 60% in 2026.

The expiring enhanced subsidies are also fueling a political standoff. Democrats are pushing for a short-term government funding deal that includes an extension of these premium tax credits, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until the federal shutdown ends. The CBO estimates extending the subsidies would cost $350 billion over the next decade.

State-level impacts are stark:

• New Jersey: Premiums expected to jump 174%, pushing annual costs above $2,780 for roughly 60,000 enrollees who will lose federal assistance.

• Colorado: Premiums could rise 101%, with 75,000 residents losing access to coverage. A family of four in Denver earning around $128,000 would see their annual premium bill soar by $14,000 without subsidies.

For comparison, the only time ACA premiums increased more sharply was 2018, when the Trump administration cut federal support for key subsidies, driving rates up 37%.

The enhanced subsidies, approved by Congress in 2021 and extended in 2022, have been credited with pushing sign-ups to a record 24 million in 2025—17 million on healthcare.gov and 7 million in state-run exchanges. Without the extra assistance, analysts predict that millions could drop coverage, potentially leaving 4 million more uninsured by 2034 on top of the 10 million already projected to lose coverage due to the One Big Beautiful Bill’s ACA and Medicaid provisions.

As open enrollment begins on November 1, Americans will be faced with a stark choice: pay far higher premiums or risk going without coverage. With federal negotiations stalled and enhanced subsidies hanging in the balance, 2026 could mark a watershed year for Obamacare—and for millions of Americans counting on affordable health insurance.