Claudia Sheinbaum Elected President of Mexico, Set to Tackle Key Issues with the U.S.

 

When Mexicans elected a new president, they also selected their next chief negotiator to handle critical issues with the United States, ranging from immigration and trade to fentanyl trafficking.

Claudia Sheinbaum won the election decisively, securing over 58% of the vote. Her substantial mandate allows her to govern the second-largest economy in Latin America and the United States' top trading partner.

As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador steps down, Sheinbaum will take office on October 1, inheriting a country struggling with slow economic growth and violence linked to organized crime. She will also face a strained relationship with the United States. Despite deep economic ties, the U.S.-Mexico relationship has been tested by shared challenges in global migration and drug trafficking.

"The two countries have been suffering from an incredible fumbling of the ball in dealing with each other," said Tony Payan, director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University's Baker Institute. "I think the two countries need to come back to the table."

While Americans enjoy "taco Tuesday" and vacations in Cancun, the complexity of the U.S.-Mexico relationship often gets lost in marketing and political rhetoric. Mexico’s influence on the U.S. is widespread.

It’s evident in Mexico-made car parts that keep U.S. autoworkers employed in Detroit, windmill blades exported to U.S. clean energy plants, pacemakers saving American lives, and the $15 avocado toast on restaurant menus nationwide.

U.S. exports to Mexico include Midwest-grown grains and natural gas from Texas. Mexico sends fruits and vegetables north, helping to keep U.S. grocery costs lower amidst volatile inflation.

Last year, Mexico became the United States' largest trading partner, surpassing China. The two neighbors now engage in nearly $800 billion in trade annually, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

However, the relationship is fraught with challenges. Mexico serves as a transit country for hundreds of thousands of U.S.-bound migrants, leading to repeated humanitarian crises at the U.S. border. Additionally, Mexico is the source of fentanyl, which causes tens of thousands of deaths in the U.S. each year.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), negotiated during the Trump administration, is up for renegotiation in 2026. U.S. business leaders worry that renegotiating the deal could create uncertainty and harm both economies.

"Mexico is now the U.S.'s main trading partner," said Jennifer Apperti, director of the Texas-Mexico Center at Southern Methodist University. "Reopening negotiations on recently settled terms would not be the best use of time. In business, time is of the essence."

Domingo Garcia, president of the U.S.-based League of United Latin American Citizens, expressed optimism about working with the Sheinbaum administration.

In past meetings, Garcia found Sheinbaum "open, engaging, and willing to listen and share her thoughts on moving forward. Mexicans are vital to the United States' economic future and our hemisphere's overall vibrancy. At the same time, we must consider environmental and scientific initiatives for our well-being today and for future generations."

With an estimated 60% turnout, this election was one of the largest in Mexico’s history, with nearly 100 million eligible voters. For the first time, Mexican citizens living in the United States were able to cast their ballots in person at 20 consulates, including in Phoenix.