CNN’s chief numbers analyst Harry Enten is sounding alarms for Republicans after Tuesday’s special election in Arizona, calling it part of a “massive move to the left” that could reshape the midterms.
Speaking early Wednesday, Enten highlighted the surge in Democratic turnout — particularly Latino voters — that carried Adelita Grijalva to victory in Arizona’s 7th District. Grijalva, daughter of the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva, outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential numbers in the district by 17 points.
“What a massive move to the left, to the Democratic side we’re talking about here. My goodness gracious,” Enten said.
The Arizona result mirrors a broader trend, Enten explained: Democrats have been outperforming Harris’ 2024 baseline in House races by an average of 18 points. “Again, this is one of the best signs Democrats have had so far. When people vote, Democrats are doing significantly better than they did just a little bit less than a year ago.”
Enten tied the results to historical precedent: “If a party outperforms in special elections going all the way back since the ’05-’06 cycle, they go on to win the U.S. House of Representatives five out of five times. We’ll see if it becomes six out of six.”
Grijalva’s win not only underscores that trend but also narrows the GOP’s already thin House majority. Republicans now hold 219 seats, Democrats 214, with two vacancies still unfilled.
For Democrats, it’s one of the strongest signals yet that 2025’s momentum may carry into the next midterm fight.
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